How to Not Be Over Confident in Competition
Summary: Athletes often fall into the trap of underestimating weaker opponents, leading to upset losses. Overconfidence causes players to prepare less, lower their intensity, and overlook the effort and motivation of their competition. Success requires respecting every opponent, preparing with consistency, and approaching each game with full focus and energy.
Have you ever entered a competition where you were the overwhelming favorite to win and just tanked?
You can look to many examples in sports when top-ranked athletes or winning teams suffer an upset loss at the hands of a weaker opponent.
Despite many cautionary tales, many top-ranked athletes still fall into the “under-estimation” trap when facing a lower-seeded opponent.
Why Does this Happen so Many Times in Sports?
Well, it all boils down to a false sense of confidence, call it over confidence.
For some top athletes, success comes easy. These athletes who perform in dominant fashion during the season expect it to continue especially when they face weaker teams.
Sometimes, these athletes look past their competition and look forward to an opponent they see as more competitive.
When you underestimate an opponent, you are not accounting for how hard your opponent has been working, how motivated your opponent will be to pull off an upset or having an off day yourself.
“On Any Given Day…”
Refers to the fact that victory is never guaranteed and given the right circumstances, even the best teams can fall.
Every game, every match, every tournament or every meet is filled with competitors game-planning, fighting, scratching and clawing to end up victorious.
If you are not willing to give it all you got in your preparation, effort and focus, then you are opening up the chance for an upset.
An example of the “under-estimation trap” is the 2019 NBA matchup between the Western Conference leading Denver Nuggets and the Phoenix Suns, the team with the worst record in the Western Conference.
The Nuggets had nearly three times as many wins as the Suns had this season.
Nonetheless, the Suns upset the Nuggets, 102-93 with their high energy play and aggressive defense.
Nuggets center, Nikola Jokic, commented that the Nuggets took their opponents lightly.
According to Jokic, the Nuggets thought the game was going to be an easy win and underestimated the Suns.
JOKIC: “I think we thought it was going to be easy. ‘I’m going to make this pass. I’m going to try this, I’m going to try that.’ I think we played their record, not their personnel. Those guys are playing hard right now.”
No opponent is a pushover. On any given day, weaker opponents can challenge you.
No matter how talented you are or how dominant your team is playing, you will not win every game.
Even the best athletes have off days.
Nevertheless, you need to prepare and approach every competition with the same degree of intensity, no matter what the level of your competition.
Taking your opponent lightly only makes competitions more challenging.
How to Not Be Over Confident:
Develop the habit of preparing the same way for every opponent. Practice with the same intensity.
Use the same pregame routine that helps you get your intensity up and game face on.
Have a sound game-plan for each competition.
Find the game within the game to help you get into the flow. Challenge yourself to push yourself to your limits–don’t expect to skate by the opponent.
1. Prepare the Same Way for Every Opponent
Treat every competition with equal focus. Build a routine that keeps you sharp, no matter who you face.
2. Avoid Playing the Record, Play the Personnel
Do not assume an easy win based on rankings. Respect that every opponent is capable of competing hard.
3. Maintain Consistent Intensity in Practice
Train with full effort before every game. Consistent preparation prevents overconfidence and keeps you ready.
4. Stick to a Solid Pregame Routine
Use the same pregame steps that help you get focused and energized. A steady routine keeps your mindset steady.
5. Challenge Yourself Within the Game
Push your limits during competition, even against weaker opponents. Finding ways to stay engaged prevents complacency.
Related Sports Psychology Articles:
- Staying Focused When Opponents Are Trash Talking
- What Does it Mean to Be a Team Player?
- Mental Toughness for Sports: Grinding it Out
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FAQ: Do You Underestimate Your Opponents?
Q: Why do athletes underestimate weaker opponents?
A: Overconfidence leads athletes to believe a win is guaranteed. They may prepare less, lose focus, or overlook the effort of their opponents.
Q: What is the risk of underestimating an opponent?
A: It increases the chance of an upset loss. Even the best teams can be beaten if they lack preparation and intensity.
Q: How can athletes avoid being overconfident?
A: Prepare the same way for every game, maintain a strong pregame routine, and play with consistent effort regardless of rankings.
Q: What does “playing the record, not the personnel” mean?
A: It means focusing only on an opponent’s win-loss record instead of respecting the individual players and their abilities.
Q: How can athletes stay motivated against weaker opponents?
A: Create personal challenges during the game, push your limits, and focus on improving performance instead of expecting an easy win.
Dr. Patrick Cohn is an expert mental performance coach who has helped athletes for over 30 years enhance their performance. Dr. Cohn earned a master’s degree in sports psychology from CSUF and a Ph.D. from the University of Virginia, specializing in Applied Sports Psychology.